Юрий СоколовRussia’s GDP in 2023, according to the first estimate, grew by 3.6%, which almost coincided with the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development.
“The volume of Russia’s GDP for 2023, according to the first estimate, amounted to 171.041 trillion rubles in current prices. The index of the physical volume of GDP relative to 2022 amounted to 103.6%. The index-deflator of GDP for 2023 against the prices of 2022 amounted to 106.3%,” the document reports.
In December, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that the ministry expects GDP growth of 3.5% in 2023. But will not formally revise the forecast. The ministry’s official forecast of September 2023 was based on the fact that the economy would grow by 2.8% in 2023.
Russian federation economy today
The main contribution to GDP growth – 2.9 p.p. – was made by final consumption of households. Consumer activity grew against the background of increasing incomes of citizens. According to Rosstat estimates, real disposable income (i.e. income net of inflation and mandatory payments – taxes, utility bills, interest on loans) grew by 5.4% in 2023
Employment grew unprecedentedly in 2023. The number of employed Russians reached 74.2 million, which is 2 million, or 3%, higher than at the end of 2022.
Consumer demand was supported by soft monetary policy and preferential mortgage programs. The combination of an abnormally low key rate of 7.5% held from September 2022 to July 2023, preferential mortgage programs and expectations that real estate prices would grow strongly stimulated consumer demand and construction activity
Data from the Federal statistical agency Rosstat
According to the materials of Rosstat, GDP growth in 2023 was largely driven by an increase in gross value added indices in the following industries:
- hotel and catering activities +10%;
- information and communication activities +10%;
- financial and insurance activities +8.6%;
- administrative activities and related additional services +7.8%;
- wholesale and retail trade + 7.3%;
- manufacturing +7%;
- construction +7%.
GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) – Russian Federation
Sources: forbes.ru, minfin.gov.ru, data.worldbank.org